← Good Games Canberra City Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Good Games Canberra City Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1229
· median 1229
· range 1144–1315
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1152
Q3 1353
1456
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.4% | -7.2 |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
